Bucks County Herald – January 15, 2009

Predictions Politics 2009, 2010, and 2011

Dear friends,

Good morning. Have the 2009, 2010, and 2011 election years already begun? The Bucks County Democratic Committee must be licking its chops. This years District Attorney’s race is the precursor for what happens to the control of the courthouse and its several thousand political jobs in 2011.

Why do I say that?

Although voters will choose three Bucks County Commissioners in 2011 (as well as the Treasurer, Register of Wills, Clerk of Courts and Coroner), the stage for the 2011 election will be set in November of this year. That’s because this year’s most important election is the office of District Attorney and that office is up for grabs. (The other offices on this year’s ballot are Sheriff, Prothonatary, Recorder of Deeds, Controller, and two Jury Commissioners.)

For decades, the Bucks County Row Offices have been firmly held by the Republican Party…including the District Attorney. But District Attorney Michelle Henry’s surprise announcement, that she won’t run for a full term this year, could throw the GOP for a loop.

Politicos figured that Henry, a Republican, would be a shoo in. The Bucks judiciary selected her to complete District Attorney Diane Gibbons' term when Gibbons was elevated to a judgeship. Henry had a good reputation in the District Attorney’s office, plus she had the advantage of incumbency. Since the D.A. has the highest row office profile, the remaining row offices tend to follow the D.A.’s lead.

Few expected that Henry would not seek reelection. Whom will the county GOP choose to take her place?

Meanwhile, the Bucks Democratic Committee can taste blood in the water.

If the Democrats can nominate a well-known lawyer and the Republicans can’t, there’s an excellent chance for the Dems to win the D.A. race…and the other five row offices too. After all, the Republican Party no longer has the edge in voter registration. The Philadelphia suburbs are trending Democratic. They solidly voted for Barrack Obama last November. Most important, Bucks County easily reelected Congressman Patrick Murphy, a Democrat.

If the Democrats win the row offices this year, they’ll be encouraged to pull out all the stops for the County Commissioner race in 2011. So, this year’s D.A. race is crucial. Whom could the GOP choose that would derail the Democratic Party’s train?

How about the President Judge of the Bucks County Court of Common Pleas, David Heckler? Heckler is a Republican and has been the President Judge (known as the P.J.) for five years. He has to leave his position because state rules prohibit a P.J. from serving longer than five years. Heckler has a good reputation and was very popular. If the GOP could convince Heckler to run for D.A., he’d be very hard to beat.

We’ll see.

In 2011, County Commissioner Charley Martin is not expected to seek a third term. He would be ideal to succeed Harry Fawkes as Republican County Chairman if Fawkes finally hangs it up. Fawkes has been the GOP Chairman since 1972.

I always thought that former congressman Mike Fitzpatrick would follow in Fawkes’ footsteps. But Fitzpatrick has been out of elected politics for two years and is probably enjoying his family (with six young children) and private legal practice. Fawkes is close to 80 and may want to call it quits.

Charley Martin would be perfect for the Chairman’s job because he’s a skilled politician, popular, and affable. Most of all, Martin could prevent infighting which usually occurs when a party’s chief retires.

Diane Ellis-Marseglia, the Democratic minority County Commissioner will be eyeing running mates for the 2011 election. She has two years to identify the candidate who would make that assignment easier.

Will she prefer a man or a woman? My bet is that Ellis-Marseglia will steer the Democrats toward a woman. Bucks County is known for its unusual high number of female organizations…most of which are in the liberal camp. Having a ticket led by two women in 2011 would be very appealing to Bucks County women.

On the other hand, Bucks County Commissioner Jim Cawley will be thinking too. Cawley’s a Republican from Lower Bucks. Will he want a running mate from middle or upper Bucks? Probably. How about a woman? That would be a good idea, says I.

Last, Congressman Patrick Murphy won’t be twiddling his thumbs in 2009? Is he content to be a congressman or could he be looking at Arlen Specter's U.S. Senate seat? Specter claims that he will seek reelection in 2010. Will Murphy start touring Pennsylvania as an Obama protégé? That’s exactly what Murphy did during the Presidential election last year.

If Murphy chooses not to run but achieves high visibility in the state, would a Democratic Governor appoint Murphy to succeed Specter should the Senator die or become incapacitated?

The possibilities are endless…and they’re fascinating. We’ll just have to stay tuned.

Sincerely,

Charles Meredith