Bucks
Madonna AAA Federation Election Predictions
Dear Friends,
Good morning. Two weeks ago, I referred to pollster Terry Madonna, the political science professor at Franklin and Marshall College and chief guru of the Keystone Poll, which many newspapers rely upon. Terry is a peppy fellow who captivates his audiences with his sharp wit and tongue.
Incidentally, he told me that he plans to speak in Quakertown in October. The Neamand Lecture Series wants him to spend the day with selected Quakertown high school students and faculty, plus an afternoon session with the public. Terry’s worth the price of admission…although the event is free.
I took in his talk at the June meeting of the Pennsylvania Federation of the American Automobile Association (AAA). He had a lot to say about the May primary and gave predictions for the fall election.
Before I get to Terry’s thoughts, I have a comment about whom the Democratic Party is running against Senator Rick Santorum. With President Bush’s approval ratings in the dismal range, wouldn’t you think that the national and state Democrat Parties would have a unified platform for their candidates by now? But the Democrats appear to be squandering a remarkable opportunity to wrest both houses of Congress from the GOP.
For example, Senator Santorum is an archconservative who opposes a woman’s right to choose and stem cell research…two key planks in the Democratic platform. So whom did the state Democratic Party nominate to oppose Santorum? Bob Casey, Jr. Casey is the mirror image of Santorum. Why the Democratic Party presented this Santorum look alike is an absolute mystery to me.
“The race will be close,” Madonna predicted. “It’s the most important senate race in America. This is not a good year to be a Republican,” Terry suggested. “If you’re a Republican candidate, hide!
“You find swing voters in the four Philadelphia suburbs,” Terry continued, referring to Bucks, Montgomery, Chester, and Delaware Counties. “They’re more liberal on social issues like abortion, stem cell research. And they oppose President Bush’s proposed amendment, which would preclude gay couples from marrying.
“The
political environment is dangerous for the Republicans,” Terry added. “Look at
the May Primary results. One Supreme Court justice was thrown out and 17 state
legislators lost. It’s unheard of to say “No” to a sitting Supreme Court
justice.” Terry claims that the illegal pay raise, which the legislature tried
to impose at
He added that the electorate does not understand why it’s necessary to have 3,000 state employees for 253 legislators. It isn’t, of course. Terry believes that five to 10 incumbent legislators may loose in November.
“And the congressional Republicans
won’t have an easy time of it either,” he said. Without naming Bucks County
congressman,
Madonna says that political open rebellion is brewing. Thanks to the pay raise issue, Operation Clean Sweep (OCS) was founded. OCS produced 80 challengers to run against incumbents, a most unusual occurrence. He noted that until the May Primary, Pennsylvania incumbents were nearly invincible with a 95 percent reelection probability.
“What does it mean,” Madonna asked? “The reform movement is alive and well,” he answered. “It’s all about arrogance. Worse, after the pay increase debacle, no legislative leader would speak about it publicly for four weeks, adding fuel to the fire. As a result, the public was exposed to 16 weeks of unfavorable newspaper articles about the lifestyles of the legislators. Talk show hosts and bloggers on the Internet all weighed in…throw the rascals out became the battle cry.”
And the voters did exactly that. Today, Madonna believes that the GOP is discouraged and disorganized. He predicts a low Republican turn out in November which would spell the kiss of death for the GOP.
As for me, my advice is to vote against every incumbent until the state legislature and the congress agree to term limits. Little good will happen without it.
Sincerely,
Charles Meredith